Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in South America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Peru⮸

Population $32,971,854$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $600,438$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(3.56 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{674,518.9}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 120.5)}}\) (asimptote \(674,518.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27,813$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(927 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,539.3}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 146.3)}}\) (asimptote \(47,539.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $158,048$ on 2020-08-25

Chile⮸

Population $19,116,201$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $400,985$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(3.25 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{382,924.4}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 98.5)}}\) (asimptote \(382,924.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10,958$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(596 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,927.8}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 100.1)}}\) (asimptote \(10,927.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $15,564$ on 2020-08-25

Brazil⮸

Population $212,559,417$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,669,995$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.23 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,395,498.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 125.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,395,498.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $116,580$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(8.47 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{124,330.5}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 103.3)}}\) (asimptote \(124,330.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $520,864$ on 2020-08-25

Bolivia⮸

Population $11,673,021$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $110,999$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(2.36 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{135,887.7}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 129.7)}}\) (asimptote \(135,887.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,664$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(98 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(26.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,093.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 124.7)}}\) (asimptote \(6,093.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $57,460$ on 2020-08-25

Ecuador⮸

Population $17,643,054$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $109,030$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{140,227.7}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 120.9)}}\) (asimptote \(140,227.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,368$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(979 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,994.1}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 77.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,994.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,637$ on 2020-08-25

Colombia⮸

Population $50,882,891$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $562,113$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(3.5 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,047,642.4}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 159.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,047,642.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $17,889$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(189 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,223.6}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 141.1)}}\) (asimptote \(28,223.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $148,761$ on 2020-08-25

Argentina⮸

Population $45,195,774$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $359,638$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(2.37 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{614,491.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 155.8)}}\) (asimptote \(614,491.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,563$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(60.6 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.2\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $88,873$ on 2020-08-25

Suriname⮸

Population $586,632$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,698$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(8.9 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,027.4}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 161.9)}}\) (asimptote \(7,027.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $61$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(0.526 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.1\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $819$ on 2020-08-25

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Uruguay recovered 42%
Venezuela recovered 28%
Brazil recovered 13%
Colombia recovered 12%

Uruguay⮸

Population $3,473,730$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,536$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(349 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(76.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,149.3}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 118.9)}}\) (asimptote \(2,149.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $43$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(10.5 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(71.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45.7}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 72.3)}}\) (asimptote \(45.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $184$ on 2020-08-25

Venezuela⮸

Population $28,435,940$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $41,158$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(138 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{113,326.3}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 173.6)}}\) (asimptote \(113,326.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $343$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(2.62 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{854.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 157.8)}}\) (asimptote \(854.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,800$ on 2020-08-25