Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $600,438$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(3.56 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{674,518.9}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 120.5)}}\) (asimptote \(674,518.9\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $27,813$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(927 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,539.3}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 146.3)}}\) (asimptote \(47,539.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $158,048$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $400,985$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(3.25 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{382,924.4}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 98.5)}}\) (asimptote \(382,924.4\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10,958$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(596 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,927.8}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 100.1)}}\) (asimptote \(10,927.8\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $15,564$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $3,669,995$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.23 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,395,498.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 125.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,395,498.4\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $116,580$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(8.47 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{124,330.5}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 103.3)}}\) (asimptote \(124,330.5\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $520,864$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $110,999$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(2.36 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{135,887.7}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 129.7)}}\) (asimptote \(135,887.7\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,664$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(98 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(26.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,093.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 124.7)}}\) (asimptote \(6,093.3\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $57,460$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $109,030$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{140,227.7}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 120.9)}}\) (asimptote \(140,227.7\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,368$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(979 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,994.1}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 77.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,994.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,637$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $562,113$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(3.5 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,047,642.4}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 159.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,047,642.4\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $17,889$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(189 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,223.6}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 141.1)}}\) (asimptote \(28,223.6\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $148,761$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $359,638$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(2.37 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{614,491.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 155.8)}}\) (asimptote \(614,491.7\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,563$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(60.6 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.2\) days)
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $88,873$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $3,698$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(8.9 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,027.4}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 161.9)}}\) (asimptote \(7,027.4\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $61$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(0.526 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.1\) days)
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $819$ on 2020-08-25